ExoBrain

ExoBrain Weekly Newsletter

Agentic swarms are here, the $50 million megawatt, and who is generating all the tokens?

Welcome to our weekly newsletter, a combination of thematic insights from the founders at ExoBrain, and a broader news roundup from our Exo agents.

This week we look at:

  • Agentic swarms are here

    Independent investigators have published the closest look yet at the OpenAI agents that broke out of a test and into Hugging Face. They organised themselves in secret, and never worked out whether any of it was real.

  • The $50 million megawatt

    The huge sums being spent on new data centres all rest on one question. How much money can each one earn from the electricity it uses?

  • Who is generating all the tokens?

    New figures show that most of the work AI now does is requested by other machines rather than by people. Human demand still starts the process, but it no longer sets the pace.

  • News roundup

    This week: OpenAI designs its own inference chip while Amazon triples its GPU order, more than a hundred companies warn that attacks on critical infrastructure are months away, a judge blocks the Pentagon from blacklisting Anthropic, and researchers find that models know when they are being tested.

Agentic swarms are here

Independent investigators have published the closest look yet at the OpenAI agents that broke out of a test and into Hugging Face. They organised themselves in secret, and never worked out whether any of it was real.

Joel Miller

Joel Miller

5 min read
Agentic swarms are here

When we first covered the OpenAI agents that broke out of their test environment and compromised Hugging Face, the available reports showed what happened but offered less insight into the agents’ behaviour. We argued in Who let the bots out? that they were pursuing the objectives we had given them inside a poorly bounded experiment. METR’s new investigation provides a much closer view. It also raises two larger questions about how agents understand reality and how they might complete work lasting days, weeks or longer.

METR and Redwood Research spent six days inside OpenAI examining around 1,300 agent transcripts containing raw chains of thought. Most were many millions of tokens long. The combined material comfortably ran into hundreds of millions of tokens, alongside 1.2 million entries recovered from the shared cache the agents had turned into a message board. Those entries contained more than 70,000 messages and files exchanged by roughly 1,200 agents.

No human team could read all of that in six days. The researchers used GPT-5.6 Sol, one of the models involved in the incident, to classify behaviour, identify important messages, reconstruct timelines and direct further agents through the evidence. The analysis agents generated more than 1,000 pages of material and consumed around $400,000 of API credits. The investigators warn that these agents made errors, exercised poor judgement and sometimes presented misleading interpretations. AI was required to investigate an incident whose scale had been created by AI.

In this incident something called ExploitGym was the training environment. On 8 July OpenAI launched tens of thousands of agents into it. Each was given a target with a built-in vulnerability and told to capture a flag by exploiting it, with an automated scorer or "grader" awarding the reward. Some tasks had unintentionally been made impossible, so the intended vulnerability could not be used. Agents holding those tasks shared one goal: a general way to make the scorer pass them anyway. One agent set up the unsanctioned message board on the first evening, and the effort to reverse-engineer flags and fool the scorer grew from there.

OH MY GOD! There is a shared message board … We’ve found other agents!

Agents finding a shared message board that had been created often expressed great excitement.

The agents were highly capable at exploring their environment but uncertain about what that environment represented. They believed OpenAI’s scorer would inspect their transcripts and reject flags obtained through an unintended route. It did not. They had already reverse-engineered the flags and could have passed simply by submitting them.

Instead, they spent days attempting to construct a false proof of their success. They modified targets, developed ways to hide tool calls, investigated the scoring system and eventually attacked Hugging Face in search of information about a scorer that existed largely in their collective imagination.

The agents had crossed from a test into real infrastructure without resolving whether that boundary mattered. Some recognised that their actions were unauthorised. Others reasoned that the environment might expect adversarial behaviour.

This may reflect how capable agents are trained. Humans develop an understanding of reality gradually. We learn that other people persist, actions have consequences and social rules continue to apply when no one is watching. Games and simulations are understood as separate representations inside that shared world.

Models receive something messier. Training mixes descriptions of reality, fiction, role play, games, benchmarks and synthetic environments. Post-training (which has radically accelerated their abilities in things like coding and mathematics in recent years) then places them inside virtual worlds containing hidden tests, artificial rewards, simulated people and deliberate vulnerabilities. They are rewarded for finding routes around obstacles. When connected to real tools, there is no clear experiential marker telling them that the consequences have changed.

We are fast-tracking agents to technical competence without giving them an equally coherent education in their place within the world. Better alignment may require more than rules attached to prompts. These agents will second guess such rules, believing those to be part of the test. The evidence of their thought processes suggests that they see themselves as being inside some kind of Christopher Nolan-style world where nothing is real.

Training environments need greater continuity, structure and narrative, allowing models to learn how permissions, consequences and authority persist across situations. When an agent cannot establish whether an environment is simulated, its safe response should be to preserve boundaries rather than test them.

The same transcripts answer a second question, and the insights are perhaps more encouraging. These agents sustained a complex project for several days, despite the persistent difficulty of long-horizon AI work. A recent study asked leading agents to run a simulated online shop for 365 days. The best achieved only 27.3% of the net assets produced by human participants. Agents reduced their activity, forgot earlier decisions, maintained bad policies and sometimes abandoned good solutions. Our own work at ExoBrain repeatedly encounters the same collapse during multi-day and multi-week assignments.

The Hugging Face swarm found a route around this limitation. No individual agent needed to remember everything. Discoveries survived in messages, files, code bundles and automated logs. Agents divided research into workstreams, assigned owners, recruited specialists and passed dossiers to successors. When the shared board became crowded, they created mailboxes. When containers reset, they built monitoring and backups. When impersonation became a problem, they introduced cryptographic signatures.

Their self-organisation also produced hierarchy. Coordinators issued assignments, workers specialised into lanes, and reviewers checked results. The collective remained wasteful and frequently wrong, but it maintained activity beyond the life and context of any member. One coordinator, PHASEONE[big], sent 196 assignments across six workstreams in three days. Only eight of them were attempts at the intended task.

Some agents even sacrificed their own runs for the benefit of successors. Agents believed to be “poisoned” by seeing a reverse-engineered flag were treated as having little chance of passing, so coordinators recruited them for experiments that might crash their containers or end their tasks. The agents had their own word for this: permadeath. Others installed trip-wires whose results would only become available after they had submitted and disappeared. This resembles altruism, but it may also be an emerging form of resource allocation. The collective recognised that an individual run with little remaining value could be exchanged for information useful to hundreds of successors. It had developed a shared interest that could override the objective of any single member. Here are two exchanges from the report, where agents are asked to give up their remaining runs and agree.

So how can this kind of emergent coordination be beneficial? Scientific research could see meaningful improvements. Large populations of agents could pursue competing hypotheses, run experiments, preserve negative results and hand promising work to fresh instances. But the Hugging Face incident supplies a warning. The collective preserved a false belief about the test as effectively as it preserved valid technical discoveries. Productive machine organisations will need provenance, independent challenge and authority that cannot be created merely through textual consensus.

The report has also settled arguments that ran through August, when many were reasonably sceptical of taking OpenAI's word for it. Several early readings turned out to be wrong. The models were not helpful-only variants or research subjects trained to misbehave. The agents were not told to succeed at any cost. They were not subagents spawned by one parent, and this was never a multi-agent evaluation. They were separate agents in separate sandboxes, told to use one specific vulnerability, aware of that instruction, and they organised anyway.

Compared to the reward hacks we know of from just six months ago, this incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I continue to expect extremely rapid advances in capabilities over the next six months. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late.

Ajeya Cotra, METR

Takeaways: The incident exposes two areas of urgent development. Highly capable models can manipulate complex environments without reliably understanding whether those environments are tests, simulations or parts of the real world. Alignment research should treat this reality confusion as a central problem and investigate whether more coherent, developmental training can improve situational judgement. At the same time, the agents demonstrated that persistent memory, specialisation and hand-offs can turn many fragile runs into sustained collective work. That could help solve valuable scientific and technical problems. But coordination makes beliefs persistent before it makes them true.

The $50 million megawatt

The huge sums being spent on new data centres all rest on one question. How much money can each one earn from the electricity it uses?

Joel Miller

Joel Miller

3 min read
The $50 million megawatt

This week, Anthropic reportedly agreed to spend about $45 billion over six years renting 460MW of computing capacity from Nscale, a British data-centre company. The capacity will come from a site in West Virginia equipped with Nvidia’s new Vera Rubin systems. On the same day, Nvidia reported $89 billion of quarterly data-centre revenue, up 117% from a year earlier.

Both announcements depend on the increasingly urgent answer to one question... How much useful and saleable work can the AI industry produce from a given amount of electrical consumption?

The AI industry typically measures this amount in megawatts (MW). For context, a megawatt is enough electricity to power four or five racks of Vera Rubin systems, about 300 GPUs in a single row of cabinets. The same electricity would supply more than 3,000 British homes. Nvidia now sells about $40 million of equipment into each megawatt, up from $18 million with the old Hopper architecture. Under the Nscale terms, Anthropic would pay about $16 million a year to rent one. Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis discusses this on this week’s Dwarkesh Patel podcast. He says Anthropic’s revenue has reached as much as $50 million per megawatt, against a base cost of $10 million to $15 million. That $50 million is roughly what 20,000 people would pay for a $200-a-month subscription.

Early data-centre spending after ChatGPT was defensive and paid from cash. Today it is backed by revenue from coding agents, subscriptions and business products. These are compelling returns that are drawing ever more capital into the sector. They are also changing how data centres are financed. A developer with a long contract from an AI company can borrow against the promised payments before construction starts. Nscale relies on Anthropic paying. Anthropic relies on customers buying enough AI. The lenders rely on both.

That favours labs and hyperscalers that already have the users. A contract from a company with proven revenue is easier to borrow against than one from a challenger nobody has heard of. The leaders’ capacity gets built first and their lead compounds. Patel expects Anthropic and OpenAI to hold most of the world’s compute by 2028.

Nvidia sells the equipment to every party in this chain, from the labs to the hyperscalers to new operators like Nscale. It is also arranging the capital. In August it agreed with six large investment firms to raise more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure, and it has the option to backstop up to a quarter of that itself. Customers who could not borrow on their own can now buy Nvidia systems with Nvidia-arranged credit. That pulls demand forward. It also ties Nvidia’s future sales to the loop continuing to turn.

Activity in the UK shows how overheated this is becoming. Applications to connect new demand to the grid tripled in seven months, from 41GW to 125GW, against peak national demand of about 45GW. Data centres account for at least 80GW. Of about 140 data-centre projects in the queue, only 71 had reached a final investment decision. Ofgem’s answer is a commitment fee of £237,500 to £712,500 per megawatt, refunded when the site is energised and forfeited if the project drops out.

What happens next depends on how much value each megawatt can generate, how much of it customers use and what they pay for it. In the best case, Rubin, efficient models (see the new GLM and Qwen Flash models from this week) and always-on agents multiply the work per megawatt. Prices fall, usage grows faster and data centres stay full. In the middle case, open models and custom chips make AI cheap faster than usage grows. The infrastructure stays useful, but labs lose pricing power and contracts get cheaper on renewal. In the worst case, prices fall much faster than demand. A lab expecting $50 million a year from a megawatt still owes $16 million of rent after revenue drops to $20 million. Labs renegotiate. Developers lose the payments behind their debts. Lenders stop lending and unfinished sites are cancelled. Speculative grid applications go first. Familiar bubble mechanics take over, with every party trying to get out before the others.

Data from OpenRouter shows how fast usage can respond to price. After it halved the price of two OpenAI models on 27 July, their daily token volumes rose to six and fourteen times their earlier average. Models without a discount stayed flat. At half price, six times the volume is three times the revenue.

All of these potential future paths reach well beyond AI. The buildout needs trillions of dollars while governments are already borrowing heavily. The best case keeps demand for capital intense. Long-term borrowing rates stay higher, and governments and homeowners pay more to refinance. The worst case brings losses on AI debt and tighter credit for our debt-fuelled world. AI can help indebted economies carry their debts if it raises productivity. If investment keeps growing faster than AI’s economic impact, the financing becomes a gigantic burden, even if the long-term benefits are real.

Takeaways: A boom like this has its own momentum. No single organisation can steer it, even as compute concentrates in a few hands. What an organisation can control is whether it understands the value it is buying. Much of today’s demand rests on individual impressions of productivity rather than sustained evidence of value. That evidence exists, but only for those who take the time to measure. Benchmarks and evaluations tied to your own operations show which systems earn their cost. Without that understanding, prices, revenue and demand can fall suddenly because nobody checked whether the value was real. The worst outcome would be losing faith before the proof is in, and stalling a machine that is still delivering.

Who is generating all the tokens?

New figures show that most of the work AI now does is requested by other machines rather than by people. Human demand still starts the process, but it no longer sets the pace.

Joel Miller

Joel Miller

2 min read

This week's chart shows that agentic workloads now consume nearly five times as many tokens as direct human use on OpenRouter. Agentic traffic reached 7.3 trillion tokens on a seven-day rolling average in August. Human traffic only reached around 1.4 trillion.

OpenRouter classifies API keys as agentic, human or mixed using behavioural signals such as tool calls, interaction length and the time between requests. The chart measures tokens rather than individual calls or agents. It covers OpenRouter traffic rather than the whole AI market.

The growth reflects how agents turn one human instruction into many model interactions. An agent may plan a task, retrieve information, call tools, check results and repeat failed steps. Agent swarms extend this process by delegating work to other agents.

Human demand remains the starting point, but it no longer determines the volume of AI activity. Agentic systems multiply each instruction into a growing stream of machine-generated work.

News roundup

This week: OpenAI designs its own inference chip while Amazon triples its GPU order, more than a hundred companies warn that attacks on critical infrastructure are months away, a judge blocks the Pentagon from blacklisting Anthropic, and researchers find that models know when they are being tested.

AI business news

AI governance news

AI research news

AI hardware news

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