This week’s chart comes from Ramp Economics Lab, which tracks real card and bill pay data from over 50,000 businesses. They split their customers by AI spending intensity (the top 25% of spenders on AI as a share of revenue versus those spending nothing) and indexed median revenue growth from November 2022. The result is striking. High AI intensity firms have roughly doubled their revenue. Those with no AI spend have barely kept pace with US nominal GDP at around 20%. The gap has been widening sharply since mid-2024.
The obvious question: does AI spending drive growth, or do fast-growing companies simply spend more on AI? A February 2026 study from the Bank for International Settlements offers a useful reference point. Using data from 12,000 European firms and an instrumental variable approach to isolate causation, researchers found AI adoption increased labour productivity by around 4%. That’s a real, measurable effect, but a long way from the 100% gap in Ramp’s chart. The likely truth sits between the two. AI does appear to help, but the firms spending the most are probably already more adaptive, more tech-forward, and more growth-oriented.