The global rush to build datacentres in 2024 continued despite the unsettling fact that every advanced chip powering our AI future comes from a single source. TSMC’s fabrication plants in Taiwan remain the only facilities capable of producing cutting-edge GPUs, from Nvidia’s powerful Blackwell (Week 12) to custom silicon from every major firm. Whilst the CHIPS Act spurred construction of new US facilities, TSMC’s own Arizona plant faces delays. More concerning still, chips must still return to Taiwan for the critical packaging step, a bottleneck that won’t ease until 2027 at the very earliest. Enter Donald Trump’s election victory, bringing promises of tariffs instead of subsidies, accusations of Taiwan “stealing” US technology, and suggestions they should pay for military protection (Week 45). Meanwhile, China (Week 35), at war with the US over access to advanced silicon watches and waits, knowing that control of Taiwan would grant unprecedented leverage over the global economy.
This technological dependency has become the most significant geopolitical risk of our time – a single military action could instantly sever the world’s supply of AI growth. As an aging Xi Jinping faces an unpredictable US president, the decisions made could tilt the balance of global AI and economic power for generations.