This week's chart shows AI catching the forecasters. On 5 September, an AI called Laertes won the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup, with bots also finishing second and fifth. Its developer, Jeffrey Liang, says he spent under 150 hours and a couple of thousand dollars building it. Hundreds of participants forecast events ranging from oil prices to data-centre restrictions, earning points for accurate probabilities maintained over time.
The result rewards more than reasoning. Forecasting systems can research every question, run several models, check numerical estimates and update predictions whenever evidence changes. Humans can still match or beat individual bots on controlled questions, but they cannot monitor hundreds of events continuously. The operational advantage is clear.